How much rain has been falling in the high Rwenzori above town — where the Nyamwamba's floods are born — and what the weather model expects next. Not a flood warning.
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Kasese's floods are born in the mountains, not in town. The Nyamwamba drops off the high Rwenzori so steeply that rain falling up there can reach the valley in hours — often while the sky over Kasese is calm. This page reads a weather model at three points along the water's path, from the high slopes down to town, so you can see what has been falling where the river starts.
The real warnings come by radio
This season's advice from the district
Steady rain has fallen over the high Rwenzori slopes in the last two days — about fifteen millimetres.
Over the next two days the model expects heavy rain over the high Rwenzori slopes — about thirty-five millimetres.
These are weather-model estimates of rain, not measurements — and rain figures are never a flood forecast.
From the high slopes down to town — the order the water travels. Rain up top can reach the valley hours later; rain in town says little about what is coming downstream.
Where the Nyamwamba's headwaters gather, high above the tree line. Rain here is the rain that matters most downstream.
The narrow valley the river runs down — Kilembe, Bulembia and the old mine estate. What falls on the high slopes passes through here first.
Where the river crosses the municipality. Kyondo, Majengo and Kihara Road in Nyamwamba Division sit closest to its banks.
Every figure here is a weather model’s estimate for an area, not a rain gauge and not a river gauge. The model works on a coarse grid — one mountain valley can catch a storm the model spreads across the whole slope, or misses.
“Nyamwamba floods are unpredictable because the river floods anytime whether there is rain or not”
That experience is the honest frame for this page. Heavy rain on the mountains is a reason to be more watchful; calm skies are never a promise of safety. This page can add context — it can never replace the warning chain above.
Plain sentences a presenter can read on air, checked 10 July at 0:02.
Rainfall update for the Nyamwamba catchment, from the Open-Meteo weather model.
In the last two days the model estimates about fifteen millimetres of rain over the high Rwenzori slopes, and about one millimetre over Kasese town.
Over the next two days it expects about thirty-five millimetres over the high Rwenzori slopes.
These figures come from a weather model — they are estimates, not measurements, and they are not a flood warning.
The warnings that count come from the Uganda Wildlife Authority's river spotters and the district authorities — stay tuned to your radio and follow what local leaders say.
Updated 10 July at 0:02. Rainfall figures are model estimates from Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0), read at the points named above; high-slope points use an elevation setting so the model downscales to that height. No river-level gauge feeds this page — none is publicly available here.