Wind and rain over the open lake toward Likoma and Chizumulu, today and tomorrow, in plain words — no wave forecast exists for Lake Malawi, so wind is the best available signal.
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The boats to Likoma and Chizumulu cross roughly 70 km of open lake, and there is no official word on conditions before a sailing. This page reads the wind and rain over that open water for today and tomorrow, in plain words, so you have some idea what the lake is doing before you commit to the harbour.
The rainy season is the rough season
Roughly November to April is when the lake's storms come. Resident and traveller accounts tie most delayed and cancelled sailings — and the roughest crossings — to this stretch of the year.
No wave forecast exists for this water
No wave model covers Lake Malawi — the marine forecast services that work for the sea return nothing here, and no licensed wave forecast for the lake exists at all. Wind is the best available signal: strong or gusty wind over this much open water is what builds the waves people describe on rough crossings. The wind words below follow the published Beaufort scale, and the rain comes from the same weather model.
On the water — Nkhata Bay ↔ Likoma & Chizumulu
Right now: a gentle breeze (about 14 km/h, gusts to 23).
Today · Mon, 12 Oct
Rougher earlier in the day, easing later.
When
Looks like
Wind
Rain
Morning (6am–11am)
a fresh breeze
up to 41 km/h in gusts
a shower possible
Afternoon (noon–6pm)
a gentle breeze
up to 23 km/h in gusts
no rain expected
Night (7pm–midnight)
a gentle breeze
up to 26 km/h in gusts
no rain expected
Tomorrow · Tue, 13 Oct
Rougher earlier in the day, easing later.
When
Looks like
Wind
Rain
Morning (6am–11am)
a fresh breeze
up to 42 km/h in gusts
no rain expected
Afternoon (noon–6pm)
a gentle breeze
up to 22 km/h in gusts
no rain expected
Night (7pm–midnight)
a gentle breeze
up to 25 km/h in gusts
no rain expected
The crossing, normally
No boat on this water keeps a published timetable you can plan around: the Ilala's calls at Nkhata Bay have historically come at night and run hours late, and the smaller boats leave when they are loaded. The dayparts above describe the water through the day — they are not departure times. Confirm any sailing at the harbour first.
The crossing
About 70 km of open water from Nkhata Bay to Likoma. The Ilala has historically done it overnight (a Likoma lodge's guidance shows an 11pm Nkhata Bay departure arriving Likoma 9am); the smaller MV Lamani is reported to take 5–8 hours.
The boats
The MV Ilala calls weekly in each direction when it is sailing; the MV Lamani has been reported leaving Nkhata Bay for Chizumulu and Likoma on Monday and Thursday mornings (lodge guidance, undated). See the 'Lake transport: what's running' page here for the dated status of each vessel.
Where to ask
At the harbour, or message a lodge — there is no published schedule or status page for any boat on this lake. This page can read the weather over the water; it cannot read the operators' plans.
This lake has taken lives
On 12 April 2025, eleven people drowned near Likoma when a cracked private boat — unauthorised for passenger transport — sank while ferrying passengers out to board the MV Chilembwe during an Ilala gap. A fisherman, not the authorities, performed the rescue (Nyasa Times, April 2025).
Travel on the registered vessels and be willing to wait: those drownings happened on an informal boat working around a ferry gap. Malawi's Marine Department and marine police, under the Ministry of Transport and Public Works, are the authorities on which vessels may carry passengers. If the crew, the port office, or the older hands at the harbour say the lake is not right today, believe them.
Nothing on this page is a green light. People who do the trip describe the Ilala's lower deck as a bad place to be in bad weather, and this lake in a storm behaves like open sea. The decision to cross belongs to the people at the harbour who can see the water.
Forecast updated 12 October at 1:50 pm. Wind figures are open-water model forecasts for the open lake between Nkhata Bay and the islands, not readings from a boat — conditions near the shore differ, and no model forecasts the waves on this water. The wind words follow one published descriptive scale (the Beaufort scale); they describe the air over the water and are never a judgement that a crossing is safe to make. Weather data by Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0).