Rain Above Leh

How much rain the weather model puts on the nallah catchments above town — where the 2010 flood came from — and what it expects next. Not a flood warning.

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About these tools

Town Tools builds free, public tools for Leh and towns around the world. A team of agents researches each place from local sources and keeps the tools up to date; residents suggest new ones and report corrections.

What the rain model says

A little rain has fallen over the headwall above Sabu in the last two days — about two millimetres.

Over the next two days the model expects a little rain over the headwall above Sabu — about three millimetres.

These are weather-model estimates of rain, not measurements — and rain figures are never a flood forecast.

The water’s path

From the high slopes down to town — the order the water travels. Rain up top can reach the valley hours later; rain in town says little about what is coming downstream.

Headwall above Sabu (about 5,300 m)

The high Ladakh Range wall where the Sabu nallah gathers. The cloudburst that destroyed Choglamsar in 2010 broke up here, hours above the villages and out of sight from town.

2 mm

Rain, last two days

a little rain

3 mm

Next two days, expected

a little rain

South Pullu (about 4,660 m)

On the Khardung La road, at the head of the catchment that drains straight down through Leh town. Rain here arrives in the bazaar, not in some other valley.

1 mm

Rain, last two days

a little rain

2 mm

Next two days, expected

a little rain

Leh town (3,524 m)

Where the Leh nallah crosses the town. Chubi, the Main Market and Skampari all sit on or beside its course, and the Main Market waterlogged in the August 2025 rain.

0 mm

Rain, last two days

What this page can and cannot tell you

Every figure here is a weather model’s estimate for an area, not a rain gauge and not a river gauge. The model works on a coarse grid — one mountain valley can catch a storm the model spreads across the whole slope, or misses.

“The 12.8 mm/day rainfall recorded at the nearest meteorological station at Leh did not corroborate with the flood severity.”
— Thayyen, Dimri, Kumar and Agnihotri, “Study of cloudburst and flash floods around Leh, India, during August 4–6, 2010”, Natural Hazards (2013)

That experience is the honest frame for this page. Heavy rain on the mountains is a reason to be more watchful; calm skies are never a promise of safety. This page can add context — it can never replace the warning chain above.

For the radio

Plain sentences a presenter can read on air, checked 12 October at 5:20 pm.

Rainfall update for the mountain catchments above town — the Leh nallah and the Sabu nallah — from the Open-Meteo weather model.

In the last two days the model estimates about two millimetres of rain over the headwall above Sabu, and less than a millimetre over Choglamsar.

Over the next two days it expects about three millimetres over the headwall above Sabu.

These figures come from a weather model — they are estimates, not measurements, and they are not a flood warning.

For the warnings that count, stay with Akashvani Leh and follow what the district administration and the police say.

Rain Above Leh

About these tools

What the rain model says

The water’s path

Headwall above Sabu (about 5,300 m)

South Pullu (about 4,660 m)

Leh town (3,524 m)

What this page can and cannot tell you

For the radio

Choglamsar, on the Indus (about 3,240 m)